Probability is a fascinating branch of mathematics that helps us understand uncertainty and chance in real life. In NCERT Class 9 Maths Ganita Manjari Chapter 7 – “The Mathematics of Maybe”, students learn how to measure and interpret the likelihood of events.
Whether it's predicting rain, winning a match, or being selected in a lucky draw—probability helps us make sense of such uncertain situations.
7.1 What is Probability?
Probability is a type of measurement, just like length, area, or volume. However, instead of measuring physical quantities, it measures the likelihood (chance) of an event occurring.
It helps us answer questions like:
These are called random events.
We know the possible outcomes, but we cannot predict the exact result in advance. This uncertainty is what probability deals with.
7.1.1 What is Randomness?
Randomness refers to situations where outcomes cannot be predicted with certainty.
Even though all possible outcomes are known, the exact result is uncertain.
7.1.2 The Probability Scale
Probability is measured on a scale from 0 to 1.
0≤P(E)≤10 \leq P(E) \leq 10≤P(E)≤1
Example:
If probability = 0.75 → There is a 75% chance the event will occur.
Probability Formula
P(E)=Number of favourable outcomesTotal number of outcomesP(E) = \frac{\text{Number of favourable outcomes}}{\text{Total number of outcomes}}P(E)=Total number of outcomesNumber of favourable outcomes?
7.2 Measuring Probability Objectively
Probability can be measured using two main approaches:
7.2.1 Experimental Probability
This is based on actual experiments or observations.
P(E)=Number of times event occursTotal number of trialsP(E) = \frac{\text{Number of times event occurs}}{\text{Total number of trials}}P(E)=Total number of trialsNumber of times event occurs?
Example:
If a coin is tossed 10 times and head appears 6 times:
Probability of head = 6/10 = 0.6
7.2.2 Theoretical Probability
This is based on logical reasoning and all possible outcomes, without performing experiments.
Example:
7.2.3 Analysing Statistical Data Using Probability
Probability helps in analyzing real-world data, such as:
7.3 Elements of Probability: Sample Space and Events
Sample Space
The set of all possible outcomes is called the sample space.
Example:
Coin toss → {Head, Tail}
7.3.2 Events
An event is a subset of the sample space.
Example:
Getting a head → Event
7.4 Tree Diagrams
Tree diagrams help us visualize all possible outcomes in a step-by-step way.
Two coin tosses:
Total outcomes = 4
Tree diagrams are very useful in solving complex probability problems.
Solved Examples
Example 1: Coin Toss
Probability of getting Head:
Answer = 1/2
Example 2: Dice Roll
Probability of even number:
Answer = 3/6 = 1/2
Example 3: Card Selection
Probability of red card:
Answer = 1/2
NCERT Exercise Solutions (Sample)
Q1. Classify events:
| Event | Type |
|---|---|
| Sun rises in the East | Sure |
| Getting 8 on dice | Impossible |
| Rain tomorrow | Likely |
Q2. Probability of Tail
Answer = 1/2
Q3. Number less than 3 on dice
Answer = 2/6 = 1/3
Real-Life Applications
Probability is used in:
Important Tips
? Understand randomness clearly
? Always write sample space
? Practice numerical questions
? Revise formulas regularly
Exam Strategy
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