Q.

Given three identical balls each containing 10 balls, whose colours are as follows:

                           Red         Blue          Green

Bag I                     3              2                 5

Bag II                    4              3                 3

Bag III                   5              1                 4

A person chooses a bag at random and takes out a ball. If the ball is Red, the probability that it is from bag I is p and if the ball is Green, the probability that it is from bag III is q, then the value of (1p+1q) is :          [2025]

1 6  
2 9  
3 7  
4 8  

Ans.

(3)

Let us define the Events

A : Ball drawn from bag I

B : Ball drawn from bag II

C : Ball drawn from bag III

R : Red ball is drawn

G : Green ball is drawn

  P(R)=P(A)·P(R/A)+P(B)·P(R/B)+P(C)·P(R/C)

                     =13×310+13×410+13×510=1230

Now, p=P(A/R)=P(A)P(R/A)P(R)=13×3101230=312=14

Now, P(G)=13×510+13×310+13×410=1230

  q=P(C/G)=P(C)·P(G/C)P(G)=13×4101230=412=13

  1p+1q=4+3=7.